Four Parliaments, Four Ballot Boxes

United Ballots Research · July 2026 · 6 minutes analysis
For 25 years, the electoral participation in devolved elections in Scotland and Wales has consistently fallen short of the turnout observed in Westminster elections. In 2026, a notable shift began to emerge.

Voter participation in the 2026 Senedd election has achieved a significant milestone, marking the first instance in which turnout has exceeded the 50% threshold. Devolution has resulted in the establishment of four distinct electoral systems within the United Kingdom. An analysis of over twenty-five years of data reveals a consistent trend: turnout in devolved elections in Scotland and Wales has seldom aligned with that of comparable UK general elections.
Since the establishment of the Scottish Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales (now the Senedd) in 1999, voter turnout at their elections has consistently been lower than that of Westminster elections. In the context of electoral engagement, the turnout for the Scottish Parliament has exhibited notable fluctuations over the years. Initial participation was recorded at 58.1% in 1999, followed by a decline to 49.7% in 2003 and a slight increase to 52.4% in 2007. The turnout further stabilized at 50.6% in 2011, before experiencing a recovery to 55.6% in 2016. The most recent election in 2021 marked a significant increase, achieving a record turnout of 63.5%. In the latest Scottish Parliament election held in May 2026, voter turnout was recorded at 56.9%. Wales has experienced a sustained period of performance, remaining below the 50% threshold for two decades, followed by a notable achievement resulting in a record high.

Wales exhibited a comparable trajectory, emerging from a relatively lower starting point. Turnout for the Senedd, previously known as the National Assembly for Wales, exhibited a fluctuating trend over its electoral history. Initial participation was recorded at 46.3% during the inaugural election in 1999. This figure subsequently declined to 38.2% in 2003, followed by a recovery to 43.7% in 2007. However, turnout experienced another decline to 42.2% in 2011. The subsequent elections saw an increase, with turnout rising to 45.3% in 2016 and reaching 46.6% in 2021. Notably, throughout the span of twenty-two years and six elections, turnout has not surpassed the 50% threshold. In May 2026, a significant milestone was achieved during the seventh Senedd election, with voter turnout reaching 51.6%. This marked the first instance of turnout surpassing the 50% threshold, representing an increase of five percentage points compared to the previous record. The 2026 election marked a significant milestone as it was conducted under a comprehensively reformed electoral framework. This new system featured an increase in representation, with 96 members elected instead of the previous 60. The election utilized a closed-list proportional representation method across sixteen expanded constituencies, superseding the additional member system that had been in place since 1999.

Northern Ireland presents a notable deviation from the established trend of devolved elections following the timeline of Westminster elections. The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election achieved a turnout of 63.6%. This figure aligns more closely with the turnout rates observed in Westminster elections than those typically seen in Scotland or Wales. This trend highlights Northern Ireland's unique historical context regarding party identification and electoral engagement, which is intricately linked to constitutional and community-identity issues that function with a degree of independence from mainland patterns.

Second-order elections and the developments observed in 2026. Analysis of the extended interval between Westminster and the devolved legislatures in Scotland and Wales reveals several underlying factors. The year 2026 is posited as a potential turning point, suggesting that it may represent a significant transformation rather than a transient occurrence. This assessment warrants further examination of the political, social, and economic dynamics at play. Political scientists examining devolved electoral participation have identified a phenomenon commonly referred to as the “second-order election” effect. This effect suggests that elections perceived as determining a less influential or less significant governing body tend to experience lower voter turnout compared to “first-order” national elections. This trend persists irrespective of the actual policy authority held by the devolved body. In the context of the Scottish Parliament, it is noteworthy that its jurisdiction encompasses significant responsibilities over health, education, justice, and, following the 2016 Scotland Act, substantial tax and welfare powers, which many voters might reasonably regard as highly impactful.

There exists a notable disparity between the actual implementation of devolved power and the public's perception of it. This phenomenon mirrors the disconnect observed in other areas of this series, particularly between local council elections and Westminster. In the context of British elections, voter turnout is more closely aligned with the national significance and media coverage of the contest rather than the substantive issues at stake.
Scotland's electoral history serves as a significant case study in voter turnout dynamics, particularly in instances where contests are perceived as existential rather than routine. The 2014 independence referendum achieved a turnout of 84.6%, marking it as the highest recorded for any democratic vote in the UK during the devolution era. This figure stands approximately twenty percentage points above the record-breaking turnout of the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, which occurred seven years later. No contest at Holyrood, Senedd, or Westminster has approached that level of participation, emphasizing that the second-order effect mentioned previously is a relative phenomenon rather than a fixed limit. When voters perceive a contest as genuinely significant and irreversible, turnout in Scotland can reach unprecedented levels in the context of recent UK electoral history.
Local government elections in Scotland and Wales adhere to a similar overarching structure as that observed in England. In the 2022 local council elections in Scotland, voter turnout was recorded at 44.8%. This figure surpasses the turnout rates observed in the local elections across England, as analyzed in other sections of this report. However, it remains significantly lower than the participation rates seen in both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster elections during comparable periods. The consistent hierarchy of electoral processes, spanning from general elections to devolved parliaments and local councils across all four nations of the UK, represents one of the most stable patterns observed in British electoral behavior. However, evidence from 2026 suggests that this longstanding pattern is beginning to exhibit signs of change.

The implications of the data are significant and warrant a thorough analysis. Understanding the underlying trends and patterns is essential for informed decision-making and strategic planning. A comprehensive evaluation will provide insights that can guide future actions and policies. Turnout is influenced by the perceived levels of competitiveness and the stakes involved, rather than by formal power structures. Both the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd possess significant policy-making powers; however, both have experienced historically low voter turnout for extended periods. The increase in turnout for the 2026 elections, coupled with authentically competitive outcomes in both nations, serves as the most compelling indication to date that the disparity is addressable when a devolved contest is perceived as significant.

The outcomes of 2026 present a nuanced challenge to the prevailing interpretation that categorizes devolved elections as inherently secondary and perpetually subordinate. In the year under review, the electoral processes for both the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd were characterized by a series of closely contested and high-profile races. Notably, Reform UK achieved a significant milestone by securing its inaugural seats in the Senedd, positioning itself as the second-largest party. Additionally, Plaid Cymru marked a historic achievement by becoming the largest party in Wales for the first time. The introduction of a newly reformed voting system further garnered substantial media attention, prompting discussions regarding the governance of Wales. Voter participation increased in both countries, despite the ongoing decline in turnout for the UK general election since 2017. The findings from this lesson align with the broader analysis of local-election trends observed throughout this series. It is evident that voter turnout should not be regarded as an inherent characteristic of a particular election type. Rather, it is influenced by the perceived competitiveness, significance, and clarity of communication surrounding each specific contest. This principle applies equally to elections for ward council seats as it does to those for the Senedd or Holyrood.